Union Budget 2017: Full remonetisation expected in a month or two, says CEA Subramanian

The budget will be presented on the second day -- February 1. This is for the first time in the history , the Union Budget will be presented on this day following the merger with the Railway Budget.

The Budget Session of the Parliament is all set to begin at 11 am today. The session’s first day – January 31 will see President Pranab Mukherjee address a joint sitting of both houses. During the first day of the session, the Economic Survey will also be presented.

The budget will be presented on the second day — February 1. This is for the first time in the history, the Union Budget will be presented on this day following the merger with the Railway Budget.

Last month the cabinet had decided to merge the Railway Budget with the Union Budget and agreed in principle to advance the presentation of the Union Budget.

Earlier on Monday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi sought the opposition’s support for the smooth functioning of the Budget Session of Parliament in an all-party meet, but opposition members made a vocal protest against the budget presentation on February 1, around a month earlier than usual.

Opposition members also said they will raise the issue of demonetisation, ceasefire violations and internal security in the brief session – ten days in total and eight working days.

Trinamool Congress had announced it will not attend the all-party meeting, and the first two days of the Parliament session protesting demonetisation. Ruling National Democratic Alliance member Shiv Sena was also missing from the meeting.

The session will have a break from February 9, be reconvened on March 9 and end on April 12.

Here are the live updates:

  • Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian explains Economic Survey 2016-17 in a press conference:

  • Full remonetisation expected in a month or two
  • Universal Basic Income a radical new idea; an idea whose time is right for deliberation, not necessarily for immediate implementation
  • External challenges include rise in oil prices and protectionism
  • The Economic Survey suggests setting up of a centralized Public Sector Asset Rehabilition Agency
  • CEA exhorts the media to refrain from “misinterpreting and mischievously interpreting” GDP projections
  • On the other hand, Correct – to analyze impact in current year – with and without demonetisation
  • NOT appropriate to do a before-after analysis of GDP growth, with respect to demonetisation
  • India’s unique demographic dividend 1: peak work-age pop to plateau soon, at lower level, but last longer due to slow TFR drop

TFR chart

(Pic: PIB twitter)

  • Demonetisation not appropriate to do a before-after analysis of GDP growth, with respect to
  • Demonetisation Cash Impact: Currency squeeze was less severe than perceived
  • Demonetisation simultaneously reduced supply of cash and increased supply of deposits thereby increasing price of cash, and reducing price of deposits
  • Demonetisation has affected different forms of money very differently
  • Service sector estimated to grow at 8.8% in 2016-17

  • Demonetisation is a very analytically unique and unusual experiment
  • The past year has had robust macroeconomic stability
  • Fiscal gain from GST will take time
  • Nominal GDP growth has declined
  • Macroeconomic stability absolutely fundamental to anything the Government wants to do
  • The document aims to provide objective analysis

  • Size of Indian public sector both in micro-efficiency terms and in a macro-fiscal sense is not large

  • India’s trade-GDP ratio is now greater than China’s

  • GDP growth in 2017-18 is projected at 6 ¾ to 7 ½ percent Post-demonetisation

  • FDI reform measures were implemented, allowing India to become one of the world’s largest recipients of FDI
  • Societal shifts at the level of ideas and narratives needed to overcome long-standing meta-challenges
  • UPI can unleash the power of mobile phones in achieving digitalization of payments & financial inclusion
  • Demonetisation has had short-term costs but holds the potential for long-term benefits
  • Headline inflation as measured by Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained under control for the third successive financial year

  • Real per capita GSDP between 1983 and 2014, shows across-the-board improvement
  • The Government has tabled the Economic Survey 2017 before the Parliament. GDP growth rate at constant market prices for the current year i.e.2016-17 is placed at 7.1 per cent.

Growth rate of the industrial sector estimated to moderate to 5.2% in 2016-17 from 7.4% in 2015-16. Agriculture sector to grow at 4.1 per cent in the current year up from 1.2 per cent in 2015-16

  • MP E. Ahamed (IUML) fell severly ill and was taken to hospital from Parliament during President’s address.
  • My Govt reiterates committment to fulfil aspirations of its people

    • J&K affected by terrorism sponsored and supported from across the border

  • My Govt is committed to combating terrorism, and ensure that perpetrators of these acts are brought to justice
  • India has been facing grave challenge of terrorism, threat to global community

  • Our defence forces successfully conducted surgical strike to prevent infiltration by terrorists
  • Four decade old demand of has been fulfilled
  • My Govt is thankful to the GST council for working to resolve the outstanding issues

  • To combat black money, corruption, counterfeit currency and terror financing, Govt took decision on 8th Nov 2016 of demonetisation
  • My Govt has taken bold decisions in the interests for the poor
  • The Ministry of Tourism has identified a thematic circuit for the North East region
  • My Government is committed to providing the Divyang jan equal opportunities for development
  • Through Stand-up India initiative, my govt. plans to empower over two and a half lakh SC, ST & women entrepreneurs
  • Implementation of the 7th Pay Commission has benefited 50 lakh employees and 35 lakh pensioners
  • Universal Account Number has ensured portability of EPF accounts and has safeguarded the interest of crores of workers
  • First-time, the Railway budget has been merged with the General budget

  • Pradhan Mantri YUVA Yojana launched for promoting entrepreneurship education and training amongst 7 lakh students
  • The revision of Maternity Benefit Act will support pregnant women at the workplace

  • Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana expanded ambit of risk coverage, doubled sum insured & facilitated lowest-ever premium
  • People helped in fight against black money
  • My Government has taken various steps to transform the lives of our farmers
  • A favourable monsoon supplemented by farmer-oriented schemes has increased the acreage and yield of most Kharif crops
  • My Govt is making ‘naari shakti’ an integral part of our development journey, they deserve equal opportunities
  • Mission Indradhanush commits to vaccinate “every child everywhere” against preventable diseases

  • Financial inclusion is key to poverty alleviation
  • My government is guided by the Antyodaya philosophy of Pandit Deendayal Upadhyaya
  • At the core of all my Govt’s policies is the welfare of the garib, dalit, peedit, shoshit, vanchit, kisan, shramik &yuva

  • Janashakti has transformed Swachh Bharat Mission into a jan-andolan

  • This is a historic session heralding advancement of budget cycle and merger of general budget with rail budget for the first time

Had discussions with parties individually & collectively. Productive & detailed discussion of budget should be done: PM Modi

Mujhe umeed hai sabhi rajneetik dal iss baar sadan ko uttam charcha ke saath aage badhane ka kaam karenge: PM Modi ahead of budget session

Government ready to discuss every issue. We have nothing to hide, worry about or fear: Venkaiah Naidu