Assembly Elections 2017: Are the exit polls predicting a second Modi wave in India after 2014?

In less than two days we will know if we are seeing Modi wave 2.0. And if indeed it's a wave, it will be impossible for any Opposition to challenge his might any time soon.

Exit polls are a mysteriously exciting event of the election process. The caveat, ‘if the exit polls is to be believed’ is a tricky trap because past experience has shown us that it might not be true. Our excitement for election results is such that we can’t wait for two more days to get the real picture. However, leaving aside the unreliable nature of exit polls. let’s just assume that they are true for the sake of argument. So what does the scenario look like?  A cumulative look at the polls show BJP has an edge in all the states. In Uttar Pradesh it almost a wave. In Manipur, too it seems to have improved its chances. In Goa, despite supposed anti-incumbency wave, it has managed to hold its own.

Take a look at the Uttar Pradesh Poll of Polls

BJP – 187/403

BSP- 73

SP + Cong – 135

Others – 9

So that is a little less than the half way mark which is required to form a government. And it’s a huge surge for the BJP from its 2012 tally of 47 seats. In just 5 years it has seen a four fold rise in its seat share, if the polls are to be believed. That’s a humongous achievement. It also speaks volume about the kind of rigorous campaign done by BJP and it’s most important star campaigner, Narendra Modi. Every election by default is seen as a referendum on the Prime Minister. This time around the ‘referendum’ angle is more prominent because all these crucial elections are coming post demonetisation.

The results will also reflect if the people of India across varied terrains- from UP to Manipur backed the Prime Minister’s claim of earnest attempt at giving India a cleaner and more transparent system; if the intention-implementation fiasco during the demonetisation and the long queues have been forgiven by the people; do the people really believe that Modi is the answer to India’s problem of black money and corruption. Going by the Exit poll results  and as BJP leader Subramanian Swamy, Modi and ‘Hindutva politics’ have taken BJP to new heights  and places – places it didn’t think it will conquer.  Even a state like Goa, where AAP had given it’s all and where it seemed the anti-incumbency wave against the BJP, seems to have swayed in favour of the Modi. Except for  Punjab, where the Badals and their corrupt image seems to be reason behind their increasing unpopularity, BJP seems to has emerged out of the demonetisation crisis with flying colours. The Exit poll results make the Bihar setback look like a minor glitch in a smooth sailing ride led by Modi.

In less than two days we will know if we are seeing a Modi wave 2.o. And if there is another wave, it will be impossible for any opposition to challenge his might any time soon.

You can follow the blow by blow accounts of all the Exit Polls here.